30 bbs deep in live tournament

[SuicideSpree]

I am talking about $EV. This is + $EV in my opinion. When i analyse a play in a tournament and say +EV i mean +$EV. I am an experienced enough tournament player to understand ICM and to understand that making +$EV plays matters when there are ICM considerations, I am slightly hurt that you would imply/assume otherwise.

"I think it would have been fine against certain opponents"

What does this mean? I don't see anything about this opponent that makes this not fine...we know he's not a reg as per OP. I mean if you're asking OP for reads then how can you be sure this is not the kind of opponent you can try this move on?

"The bubble changes things a bit"

In what way does the bubble change things? You haven't posted any kind of numbers or analysis either on how +EV this is or on how much $EV you might gain by laddering up. If you had numbers I can engage in this discussion. This comment is overly generalized and seems based on your general impression rather than any concrete analysis.

Finally I have to point out that if the bubble does matter that's all the more reason to do this, because the final decision will be on the villain, who will have to (and he will) respect ICM. In all likelihood he will overvalue ICM and make a bad fold.

[rentdollarinplay]

I am talking about $EV. This is + $EV in my opinion. When i analyse a play in a tournament and say +EV i mean +$EV. I am an experienced enough tournament player to understand ICM and to understand that making +$EV plays matters when there are ICM considerations, I am slightly hurt that you would imply/assume otherwise.

"I think it would have been fine against certain opponents"

What does this mean? I don't see anything about this opponent that makes this not fine...we know he's not a reg as per OP. I mean if you're asking OP for reads then how can you be sure this is not the kind of opponent you can try this move on?

"The bubble changes things a bit"

In what way does the bubble change things? You haven't posted any kind of numbers or analysis either on how +EV this is or on how much $EV you might gain by laddering up. If you had numbers I can engage in this discussion. This comment is overly generalized and seems based on your general impression rather than any concrete analysis.

Finally I have to point out that if the bubble does matter that's all the more reason to do this, because the final decision will be on the villain, who will have to (and he will) respect ICM. In all likelihood he will overvalue ICM and make a bad fold.

any cev calc ppl know here?

[finesse]

@$$TROLL: BB had been active since I joined the FT ... opening frequently, 3-betting light with AJo kinda hands and calling a shove by original raiser ...

[$$TtotheMFingROLL$$]

I am talking about $EV. This is + $EV in my opinion. When i analyse a play in a tournament and say +EV i mean +$EV. I am an experienced enough tournament player to understand ICM and to understand that making +$EV plays matters when there are ICM considerations, I am slightly hurt that you would imply/assume otherwise.

"I think it would have been fine against certain opponents"

What does this mean? I don't see anything about this opponent that makes this not fine...we know he's not a reg as per OP. I mean if you're asking OP for reads then how can you be sure this is not the kind of opponent you can try this move on?

"The bubble changes things a bit"

In what way does the bubble change things? You haven't posted any kind of numbers or analysis either on how +EV this is or on how much $EV you might gain by laddering up. If you had numbers I can engage in this discussion. This comment is overly generalized and seems based on your general impression rather than any concrete analysis.

Finally I have to point out that if the bubble does matter that's all the more reason to do this, because the final decision will be on the villain, who will have to (and he will) respect ICM. In all likelihood he will overvalue ICM and make a bad fold.

Not good with numbers , and yeah I was speaking in a general sense, cause live poker has so many dynamics on the table, that without being there, all I can give is general advice. specially without knowing OPs perceived range with this stack size.


What my main point is, unless we know for sure, what the BB is doing here, we cannot risk going down to 5BB vs 28BB is we fold, just to take up a slightly +cEV spot. And if we do this, I think its -$EV . I would like to see someone break this down numbers wise.

[SuicideSpree]

I don't know what to say $Troll. You say it's +CEV but -$EV but don't give me any justification for why that's the case. Also I think this is massively +CEV and not "slightly" so. Also, its just a fact that the payjumps in the money bubble are very small compared to the higher prizes and as such can't effect your $EV so much at this stage.

My other problem is that you've very irrationally decided that when we don't know what a guy is like we always err on the side of taking nitty actions. This is very silly IMO and its a methodological issue. This is a mathematical spot and we can't have mental biases in favour of not acting. Unless we know for sure, we make some kind of default assumption which incorporates everything we do know and factors in the probability of unknown stuff. If you have no idea at all, you assume he's a reg some percentage of the time and do the calculation then.

As for Trollguru- I commend your reading skills. As I pointed out above we don't have to be ahead of the BB for this to be +EV. he just needs to be willing to fold hands that are better/flipping some of the time.

[$$TtotheMFingROLL$$]

I know there my opinions are not supported by maths, but after playing for a while, you sort of get a 'feel' for this thing. So that way my opinion could be biased, and you might be right. but I was just giving an opinion based on my experiences, which might be different from yours. Maths is the only way to settle this. Let me see if I can get someone on 2p2 to come here and do some math for us.

I just dont know how to assign our FE against BB in the equation . I think he is almost never folding, and you think otherwise. This could actually be a case of online vs Live, but online, I just dont think people are folding in that spot ever.

[finesse]

I think this is more applicable to cash games, where cEV = $EV , But in tournaments we have to sometimes let go marginal +cEV spots, to gain $EV. If this was a spot earlier on in the tournament , I think it would have been fine against certain opponents, but the bubble just changes things a bit, And I think this situation is a close example.

Any reads on the BB , finesse ?

1. The player had been 3-betting light n calling shoves with marginal hands

2. Would it make a difference if there were 7 players left instead of 6 ??

[SuicideSpree]

2. Would it make a difference if there were 7 players left instead of 6 ??

+1 million. Best question of the thread. $$Troll really needs to answer this one.

[$$TtotheMFingROLL$$]

Just typed out a Huge reply for finesse, hit wrong button, everything erased, cant be arsed, be back later with the math and everything.
Stop licking your chops spree, I will be back :P

[rentdollarinplay]

1700+9*800+9*800+400+100*6 = 17100 (in pot)

stack left : 30*800-1700-100 = 22200

1. BB folds 60% of the time, hu vs shover, with 50-50 equity:

we win : .6*.5(17100+5500) = 6780 + 21*800


2. BB calls 40% of the time with 55% equity vs us
we win : .4*.55*(59*800+400+600) = 8676 (ignoring shrt stack in probability calc, 59 bb in play)+5*800

3. stack if folded = 22200

anytime BB calls we are in a shithole

edit : for our call to be shit-awful : BB has to be calling around 50% of the time , and even then its marginally +cev