Is this a right play @ the bubble ???

[shashank.s]

This hand happened close to the bubble, less than 20odd places to the money.
Villian has been on my table for quite sometime, seems to be a standard nit player, bets/calls when he has made his hands & folds the rest.
Never puts his stack at risk, has folded to quite a few turn/river raises & shoves.
I have been pretty active, opening a lot of hands.


PokerStars Hand #80069008209: Tournament #555874218, $2.00+$0.20 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XX (700/1400)
Table '555874218 130' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: porto231 (11198 in chips)
Seat 2: harrys1962 (26331 in chips)
Seat 3: medik EX-2 (59034 in chips)
Seat 4: Samole9915 (55844 in chips)
Seat 5: Bulat.alt (46140 in chips)
Seat 6: shashank.s (48381 in chips)
Seat 7: Flank Speed (64231 in chips)
Seat 8: bbbuz (40703 in chips)
Seat 9: heliezio (61084 in chips)
porto231: posts the ante 175
harrys1962: posts the ante 175
medik EX-2: posts the ante 175
Samole9915: posts the ante 175
Bulat.alt: posts the ante 175
shashank.s: posts the ante 175
Flank Speed: posts the ante 175
bbbuz: posts the ante 175
heliezio: posts the ante 175
harrys1962: posts small blind 700
medik EX-2: posts big blind 1400

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to shashank.s [Th Kc]
Samole9915: folds
Bulat.alt: folds
shashank.s: raises 1806 to 3206
Flank Speed: folds
bbbuz: calls 3206
heliezio: folds
porto231: folds
harrys1962: folds
medik EX-2: folds

*** FLOP *** [Qs 9d Td]
shashank.s: bets 4400
bbbuz: raises 8600 to 13000
shashank.s: calls 8600

*** TURN *** [Qs 9d Td] [8d]
shashank.s: checks
bbbuz: checks

*** RIVER *** [Qs 9d Td 8d] [Ah]
shashank.s: bets 32000 and is all-in


My questions:

1.Is this a good play to make, given that we are at the bubble n the villain doesn't seem to want to risk his stack in marginal spots?
2.Give his pre call n flop raise, can we remove all suited diamonds, JK's,QJ's,JX's,7X's from his range? Could he really be raising the flop with straight/flush draws?
3.In the long run is it advisable to peel flops in such spot, when a lot of turn cards can be exploited against villain's range?

[Sachin111]

The river shove looks right play to me against a nit player in a $2 tourney. He will have a touch time calling with anything but the flush, which we can exclude from his range given his image and the flop raise. The flop call doesn't look a profitable play to me though. When a nit player shows strength, it's best to get out of the hand.

[cdbr3799]

You absolutely have to shove the river given all the info you have given, but the flop call makes no sense against his perceived range when 40% of his stack is in the middle and you are out of position. There's a good chance he's just going to shove the turn if the perfect card doesn't come, not to mention he could have nailed that turn with AQdd/AJdd/KQdd/KJdd and be trapping you now. You at least want to have like the Kd blocker or something if you're going to peel the flop, but even then it's probably not a good idea.

[slammyjammy]

i wud hv folded the flop against that 3bet, but since ya decided to play it shoving the river there was the only move u had..

[intervention]

You absolutely have to shove the river given all the info you have given, but the flop call makes no sense against his perceived range when 40% of his stack is in the middle and you are out of position. There's a good chance he's just going to shove the turn if the perfect card doesn't come, not to mention he could have nailed that turn with AQdd/AJdd/KQdd/KJdd and be trapping you now. You at least want to have like the Kd blocker or something if you're going to peel the flop, but even then it's probably not a good idea.

+1

[vinay_suchede]

i wud hv folded the flop against that 3bet, but since ya decided to play it shoving the river there was the only move u had..

+1 .. calling that 3-bet to peel is too expensive.. there are pot commitment issues for you as well as 1/3rd of your stack is in as well..