Variance catching up

[danishshaikh]

PokerStars Hand #79429051590: Tournament #549572680, $2.00+$0.20 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XIV (250/500) - 2012/04/25 22:14:04 IST [2012/04/25 12:44:04 ET]
Table '549572680 32' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: aguia32 (5875 in chips)
Seat 2: danish7 (14088 in chips)
Seat 3: svajgi (17959 in chips)
Seat 4: brucelee0001 (3605 in chips)
Seat 5: Safira10777 (19240 in chips)
Seat 6: Ballon04 (12479 in chips)
Seat 7: _facix_ (14785 in chips)
Seat 8: mooske1 (4413 in chips)
Seat 9: aldunchik (6716 in chips)
aguia32: posts the ante 60
danish7: posts the ante 60
svajgi: posts the ante 60
brucelee0001: posts the ante 60
Safira10777: posts the ante 60
Ballon04: posts the ante 60
_facix_: posts the ante 60
mooske1: posts the ante 60
aldunchik: posts the ante 60
mooske1: posts small blind 250
aldunchik: posts big blind 500
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to danish7 [Qh Ad]
aguia32: calls 500
danish7: raises 1333 to 1833
svajgi: folds
brucelee0001: folds
Safira10777: calls 1833
Ballon04: folds
_facix_: folds
mooske1: folds
aldunchik: folds
aguia32: calls 1333
*** FLOP *** [Ac 8d 8s]
aguia32: checks
danish7: checks
Safira10777: checks
*** TURN *** [Ac 8d 8s] [3d]
aguia32: checks
danish7: bets 3199
Safira10777: calls 3199
aguia32: folds
*** RIVER *** [Ac 8d 8s 3d] [Qd]
danish7: bets 5233
Safira10777: raises 5233 to 10466
danish7: calls 3763 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (1470) returned to Safira10777
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Safira10777: shows [8c Jd] (three of a kind, Eights)
danish7: shows [Qh Ad] (two pair, Aces and Queens)
Safira10777 collected 31179 from pot
danish7 finished the tournament in 1213th place
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 31179 | Rake 0
Board [Ac 8d 8s 3d Qd]
Seat 1: aguia32 folded on the Turn
Seat 2: danish7 showed [Qh Ad] and lost with two pair, Aces and Queens
Seat 3: svajgi folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: brucelee0001 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Safira10777 showed [8c Jd] and won (31179) with three of a kind, Eights
Seat 6: Ballon04 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: _facix_ (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: mooske1 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: aldunchik (big blind) folded before

betting the river makes sense thought could remove some value

[SuicideSpree]

Don't really like checking the flop here, given that you are only 29 BBs deep AQ is definitely a hand you want to play for stacks on this flop and that can't happen with a natural betting sequence if you check. (Edit: Just noticed that you could actually have gotten all-in pretty easily by shoving river, so what i wrote here and the next para is a bit off, but still checking here isn't ideal and certainly if you were a little deeper you would need to bet all three streets, and in any case I don't see how checking is going to convince any hand which doesn't have an ace or better or to get more money in than they would have otherwise)

I don't see how checking is going to gain you much extra value in this spot, but if they have any random ace (which is very likely with two villains) then you are costing yourself quite a few chips by checking the flop (Especially in a $2 tourney where clowns can easily stack off 150 BBs let alone 30 with a top pair type hand).

Also shove the river. I mean if someone is calling your obvious value bet for 5300, they'll also call your shove for 3700 more (and the pot is anyway like 13k or something so this small bet is very random here), and in any case if they have a hand better than AQ they'll shove anyways and there's no way you are folding. So in the long run betting smaller costs you chips when he just calls with a weaker ace or whatever.

[danishshaikh]

Yo Prabhat the board was paired i checked for deception those clown were playing any two its very unlikely that he had a eight, having an ace would have been top of his range, didnt really wanted the action to be ended on the flop and value betting the river 5300 because i actually wanted him to call didnt wanted to push that might have made him run away.

[SuicideSpree]

Yo Danish...I know why you only bet the river small, but as I said anyone who calls for 5,300 into a 13k pot also calls for 9k or whatever so you are just costing yourself chips.

As for flop you may have deceived them but ultimately you are never gonna get paid unless they have at least an Ace. It's not really bad to check here, but it would definitely be a mistake if you were a little deeper and couldn't get all-in normally. With 29 BB in this spot unless your value-bets get you all-in on the river, you've made a mistake.

[saby]

Danish long time no C...
C bet 100% of the time when u raise pre...if called on this board try to get to showdown cheap.. On the turn the board is A883 when u bet who calls you....again on the river if he had a 8 ur still beat and no point betting here...there is no value in betting...u have a hand which might be ok at showdown...so get to showdown as cheap as possible...2 pairs change nothing on this board... and dont try deception on a low buyin tourney theres no point...

[intervention]

I dont know why everyone feels compelled to bet the flop. Its pretty dry board and dont think we get 3 streets, going for 2 streets seems fine. Turn brings a flush draw, when u bet and he calls he cud hv turned a flush draw, cud hv an 8 although I wud expect him to bet flop or raise turn (so i wud not think he has an 8 a very high % of time when he calls my turn bet) and ofc an Ace with weak kicker. River is not the best card for u since the flush draw get there (backdoor but flop was checked around), I think we shud check call this river, Most people with A9 A7 type hand will prob bet river for value, we can induce random bluffs and loose minimum when he has a flush or an 8. There is value in betting river since all Ax hands will always call expecting to chop, but I prefer check call on river.

[SuicideSpree]

Maybe wrong here adi, but this is a $2 tournament, i would think clowns at this level are very willing to stack off for 30 BBs effective with any ace once they see this flop. Given how wide a range OP thinks they have, it seems safe to assume they are fish. In any case are we ever gonna get 2 streets from a hand that doesn't have an Ace or an 8?

[danishshaikh]

Totally agree with Adi check calling river was right play, could have lost minimum.

[rentdollarinplay]

Totally agree with Adi check calling river was right play, could have lost minimum.

how can c-c river be the right play, unless u feel checking flop will cause villain to bet weaker Ax on the river for value vs you.. river check is sure-shot losing value, also w/o history reads and the massive donkness of $2mtt players, flop check is super bad/weird

[bothra]

i dont see any point raising any time in this hand. preflop raise could have been higher (i might be saying this on hindsight) but after flop u should have just checked at each point and if anyone else raise u could have thought of calling if the raise is very low otherwise should have folded